OPINION

Donald Trump's bull run comes to an end with Democratic win in Pennsylvania

By Bruce Wolpe

15 Mar 2018

Australia's Jonathan Swan of Axios captured it best at the weekend: President Donald Trump was downright "giddy" at the airport hangar rally for the Republican candidate — now declared the loser — in the special by-election in Pennsylvania.

For 75 minutes, Mr Trump lorded over the political landscape — from his lightning diplomacy with Kim Jong-un, to attacking the "fake news" media, to the trade war he relishes, to his fidelity to the NRA agenda on guns, to his I-can't-wait-to-take-down-Oprah-if-she-runs-against-me riff, to his unveiling of his re-election campaign slogan ("Keep America Great!"). Mr Trump was in his prime.

Today we know he was really flying high because he was going to fire his Secretary of State: the apprentice gets it in the neck via Twitter.

The fireworks of Saturday's spectacle cannot mask the huge upset in the Republican heartland that now presages an immense Democratic wave that could re-take at least one of the houses of Congress this November. Republicans are on edge today in the aftermath of this by-election result.

Donald Trump is pugnacious on America's posture in this world, projecting American strength in a sea of challenges and enemies. (Reuters: Kevin Lamarque)

But there is much more behind this result and its 20-point swing in a solid Republican-red seat. That swing would put the Republican majority in Congress at real risk if it was replicated in November by only half that quantum surge to the Democrats.

Trump polling puts GOP in death zone

Going into this week, Mr Trump had given Pennsylvania — one of the three key Democratic states he snatched in 2016 — a lot of hope: A tax cut bill that has put more money into the pockets of workers and the companies who hire them; a new sense of a new sunrise for the steel companies in the state, now protected by tariff walls; a booming economy that is beginning to deliver real wage increases; a President who is pugnacious on America's posture in this world, projecting American strength in a sea of challenges and enemies.

What has happened in Pennsylvania — which has been evident for some time but with no outlet for expression until today — is a huge disconnect between a solid economy, with hope for the future, and the President who is leading it.

The former is heartily welcomed, but Mr Trump himself is viewed with deep concerns about his character and how he conducts his duties. And the Republican majorities in Congress are now in danger of falling into that gap.

Mr Trump's approval is well below 50 per cent — the death zone for a president's party in the midterm elections. Even in this reliably Republican district, Mr Trump's approval was 49 per cent going into the election, with 49 per cent disapproval. And he still lost the seat.

The deeper issue was captured best by Peggy Noonan, a former speechwriter for Ronald Reagan and hagiographer of his legacy. Writing in the Wall Street Journal last weekend, she caught Mr Trump's attention with these words:

"Everything you've learned from life as a leader in whatever sphere — business, local public service — tells you this: Crazy doesn't last. Crazy doesn't go the distance. Crazy is an unstable element that, when let loose in an unstable environment, explodes.

"And so your disquiet. Sooner or later something bad will happen — an international crisis, or damaging findings from the special counsel. If the president is the way he is on a good day, what will he be like on a bad day?

"It all feels so dangerous. A president who has relative prosperity and relative peace should be at 60 per cent approval. This is why he is about 20 points lower."

What feels dangerous is that Mr Trump is actively abetting the corrosion of the institutions established after World War II to ensure our security and prosperity.

NATO is weaker; most of America's allies are deeply alienated from the US; the world trade regime is crumbling under a US-led protectionist onslaught; and Russia and China are much stronger.

What feels dangerous is a president who if he were the CEO of a listed company would be fired for the utter chaos among his executive ranks.

Dozens of Trump officials have been purged. Today, his secretary of state is gone, and his chief of staff, national security advisor, attorney general, education and veterans secretaries, and son-in-law advisor are all vulnerable to being ousted at a moment's tweet.

What feels dangerous is a hush-money scandal that could explode in the same manner as the events that led to the impeachment of Bill Clinton 20 years ago.

What feels dangerous is the continuing investigation by the Special Counsel Robert Mueller, who may well indict more of those who served in the campaign who were closest to Mr Trump, including his son and his son-in law, and who may, before this is all over, seek the indictment of the President himself. (This has never occurred before. If you liked the high-stakes legal dramas in Spielberg's movie, The Post, you ain't seen nothing yet.)

Kim Jong-un summit carries great danger

What feels dangerous is the summit meeting with Kim Jong-un. Mr Kim agreed to the meeting; the sanctions are biting. The conditions precedent are all against North Korea. The talks will be about denuclearisation. His testing stops. Joint US-ROK exercises continue. So this is all a plus for diplomacy.

Mr Trump agreed to the meeting. This is his dramatic persona unleashed.

But how to view this is critical. The parallel is not Reagan-Gorbachev or Kennedy-Khrushchev. This is not the US and the USSR. This is the US and an "axis of evil" country, North Korea.

Too early to celebrate?

The correct parallel is then secretary of state James Baker's meeting with Iraq's Tariq Aziz on the eve of the Gulf war in 1991. Mr Baker carried a letter to Saddam Hussein. It was a last-ditch effort at diplomacy to avert war. The meeting failed. And there was war.

So this meeting is one of great hope — and great danger. Because if this diplomacy fails, and the North resumes its nuclear program, the chances for war are much higher, because there will no alternative to a resolution.

And war will not be welcomed at home. But there is fear that the President, and his new, more hawkish Secretary of State, may well pursue it.

The message from Pennsylvania: thank you Mr President for the economy, but we don't trust you. Our troops are energised as never before, they want you out, and they are voting. And moderate Republicans are deserting you.

And to check your executive power, and keep an eye on you, and make sure you follow the rule of law, and send you back to Trump Tower in 2020, we will send more Democrats to Washington in November.

Bruce Wolpe was on the Democratic staff in Congress in Barack Obama's first presidential term. He supported Hillary Clinton's campaign. He is chief of staff to former Prime Minister Julia Gillard. The views posted here are solely and exclusively his own.