A WORLD AT RISK

New York            Cesar Chelala

In its latest outlook of the global economy, The World Economic Forum Global Risks 2012 report paints a gloomy panorama of the future if world’s institutions –governments, private industry, academic institutions and social organizations- don’t make some radical changes. The report was prepared as a prelude to the Davos, Switzerland, meeting later this month.

Increasing number of unemployed young people, growing number of elderly people dependent on the states and the expanding gap between the rich and the poor are sowing ‘seeds of dystopia’. This term was originally coined by the British philosopher John Stuart Mill as a contrast to utopia. Social critics use the term ‘dystopian’ to condemn negative trends in post-industrial societies.

The findings in the report are based on surveys of 469 experts and industry leaders, and show a shift of concerns from environmental risks to socioeconomic risks which were the focus of the report a year ago. “For the first time in generations, many people no longer believe that their children will grow up to enjoy a higher living standard than theirs,” stated Lee Howell, the World Economic Forum Managing Director and responsible for the report.

This situation exists not only in industrialized countries, beset by economic crises, but also in developing countries that also suffer the effect of those crises. The recent downgrading of France’s sterling credit rating by Standard & Poor’s Corp. followed by a similar measure on other European countries, underscores the seriousness of the situation affecting the countries’ economies. Meanwhile, as the second Greek bailout is looking more complicated, the country’s pharmacies are running out of basic medicines. In addition, some families, unable to take care of their children are abandoning them to be cared for in youth centers.

The report analyses 50 global risks and divides them in three different sets of risk cases to the world’s prosperity and security. The three risk cases describe the links across a selection of global risks, their interplay and how they are likely to develop over the next 10 years.

The first case, called Seeds of dystopia, describes what happens when efforts to build a better world do not go as anticipated. This case deals with how formerly wealthy countries can descend into lawlessness and unrest as they are unable to meet their social and fiscal obligations. In that regard, it warns that developed economies such as those of Western Europe, North America and Japan are in danger of being destroyed. As a result, workers near retirement fear that cutbacks in social entitlements, mainly access to quality health care, will seriously affect their quality of life.

The challenges in emerging economies such as Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Mexico, Peru and the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China)  are different since these countries are trying to take advantage of a demographic window of opportunity of a young and large labor force before this population also ages. Rapid growth among these emerging economies has created expectations that improved conditions will benefit all of them, a premise that recent economic developments is unable to sustain. As stated in the report, “…social contracts may not be forged quickly enough to rectify increasingly visible economic inequalities and social inequities.”

The second case discussed in the report is called, How Safe are our Safeguards? In it, the analysis of the Global Risks Survey stated that “…the risk of unintended negative consequences of regulations was tightly connected with many other global risks.” The report stresses that to be effective the safeguards have to strike the right balance on topics such as global finance, transportation networks, emerging science and new technologies, scarce resources, the climate and biodiversity. 

One of the main problems is that, frequently, safeguards are inadequate, over-complicated, fragmented and slow to respond to the rapid pace of global change. A change of mentality is necessary, states the report, “…so that policies, regulations or institutions can offer vital protection in a more agile and cohesive way.”

In the third case, called The Dark Side of Connectivity, the report analyses how our daily lives depend on hyper connected online systems, and underscores that new mechanisms are now required to finance private investment in exploring existing system vulnerabilities before they can be abused.

In the last few years, the increasing popularity of the Internet has changed the ways in which we communicate, conduct business and even amplify popular uprisings, as recent events have shown in several countries worldwide. Communication techniques have touched areas such as human rights and made it possible to forcibly prosecute some human rights abusers.

At the same time, recent progress has dramatically increased the possibilities for cyber attacks whose consequences may affect from petty crime to shutting down critical government systems and even potentially triggering physical armed warfare. Cyber espionage, for example, has reached now a high level of technical sophistication and although now is believed to be restricted to major corporations, government agencies and elite hackers, it can have a wider use in the future.

What makes this report particularly valuable is that it stresses the need to develop new thinking regarding private and public responsibilities, and alerts on how some specific risks, if not properly addressed, can be a serious threat to peace and economic progress in the world.

Dr. Cesar Chelala, a New York writer on human rights and foreign policy issues, is the foreign correspondent for The Middle East Times International (Australia).

CREATING AN ENEMY

New York            Cesar Chelala

Recently, as we discussed international political events, a friend told me, “Countries are like people: they react in the same manner.” I didn’t quite realize the full import of her words until now that I view the seemingly inevitable path to war between the United States/Israel and Iran.

There are abundant historical examples to prove that an effective weapon in creating antagonism between countries as a prelude to war is by dehumanizing the enemy. Although the Holocaust during World War II and the Rwandan genocide are extreme cases of enemy dehumanization, a similar process exists almost every time there is war.

This is also true in the case of Iran, whose leaders have described their enemies pejoratively. However, that same language has also been used in describing Iranians, which further exacerbates an extremely delicate situation.

Anthropologists Ashley Montagu and Floyd Matson wrote that dehumanization could be considered the “fifth horseman of the apocalypse” because of the damage it has caused society and wrote, “The possible attainment of full humanness –the transformation of the species from Homo sapiens to Homo humanus- rests upon our recovery of the lost world of fellow feeling, the source of all human connection.”

In a beautiful poem entitled “How to Create an Enemy” Sam Keen, an American former professor of philosophy and religion, expresses similar feelings:

Start with an empty canvas

Sketch in broad outline the forms of

men, women, and children.

Dip into the unconsciousness well of your own

disowned darkness

with a wide brush and

strain the strangers with the sinister hue

of the shadow.

Trace onto the face of the enemy the greed,

hatred, carelessness you dare not claim as

your own.

Obscure the sweet individuality of each face.

Erase all hints of the myriad loves, hopes,

fears that play through the kaleidoscope of

every infinite heart.

Twist the smile until it forms the downward

arc of cruelty.

Strip flesh from bone until only the

abstract skeleton of death remains.

Exaggerate each feature until man is

metamorphosized into beast, vermin, insect.

Fill in the background with malignant

figures from ancient nightmares – devils,

demons, myrmidons of evil.

When your icon of the enemy is complete

you will be able to kill without guilt,

slaughter without shame.

The thing you destroy will have become

merely an enemy of God, an impediment

to the sacred dialectic of history.

Is there, one wonders, some other way to face what seems to be an inevitable rush to widespread destruction and death? I believe there is. Untested diplomatic approaches could be applied in the current situation with Iran.

A possible first step before time runs out is to declare a moratorium on confrontational actions from both sides, while making an effort to know the other better. This could be achieved through a series of exchanges of scientists, doctors, artists, students, and sportspersons among the countries in conflict.

The recent rescue at sea from Somali pirates of 13 Iranian fishermen by American sailors shows what these kinds of actions can do to improve relations among people in conflict. Iranian fishermen could not hide their appreciation to the Americans for their rescue. We can make a conscious effort to create an atmosphere for peace with the same steadfast determination we use to create an atmosphere for war.

This approach will probably be dismissed as hopelessly naïve by many learned pundits. It does not conform to their idea that Iran is a devious power which will only respond to force. However, there can be no peace if an atmosphere of peace is not created among the common people. All other options have so far been ineffective. This is the moment to give a constructive proposal a try. 

Dr. Cesar Chelala, a winner of an Overseas Press Club of America award for an article on human rights, is the foreign correspondent for The Middle East Times International (Australia).

ECONOMIC CRISIS IN GREECE AND ITS EFFECT ON HEALTH

New York Dr. Cesar Chelala

The deteriorating global economic outlook is increasing worries among health experts on the effects that the economic crises will have on people’s health. As the World Health Organization stated in 2009, “It is not yet clear what the current financial crisis will mean for low-income and emerging economies, but many predictions are highly pessimistic.”

In low-income countries, economic crises lead to reduction in demand for imports –including medicines and medical supplies and technology- tighter access to capital and falling remittances from family members working outside the country. In addition, there is less government revenue to finance health and social services.

A recent article in Lancet, highlights those effects in Greece, one of the European countries most affected by the ongoing global economic crisis. As a result, there has been a significant increase in unemployment, which rose from 6.6% in May 2008 to 16.6% in May 2011. Even more troublesome, youth unemployment rose in the same period from 18.6% to 40.1%.

Several studies have shown that unemployment increases both the risk of psychiatric and somatic disorders. For example, a strong correlation has been found between job loss and clinical and subclinical depression, substance abuse, anxiety and antisocial behavior. In addition, several studies have shown that prolonged unemployment increases mortality rates.

In Greece, there has been a 17% increase in suicides between 2007 and 2009. During that same period, homicide and theft rates almost doubled. 25% of callers to a national suicide help line reported financial difficulties in 2010. The inability to pay high levels of personal debt may be one of the explanations behind the increase in the number of suicides, which had a 40% increase in the first six months of 2011 compared to the same period in 2010.

Also, a surge in intravenous drug users may explain a rise of more than 1000% HIV infections among them. In addition to intravenous drug use, prostitution and unsafe sex are also responsible for the increase in HIV infections in the general population, estimated to be 52% higher in 2011 than in 2010.

Although in Greece patients with social insurance may visit general practitioners (GPs) free of charge or attend outpatient clinics for a very low fee, there was a reduction of those visits in 2009 compared to 2007. At the same time, there was a 24% rise of public hospital admissions in 2010 compared to 2009 while admission to private hospitals declined by 25-30% during the same period. This situation may be a result of a 40% cut in hospital budgets causing understaffing and occasional shortages of medicines and medical supplies.

Another example of the effect of the economic crisis in Greece on vulnerable groups is the increased use of street clinics run by NGOs, such as the Greek chapter of Médecins du Monde, which report an increase on those seeking medical attention from their street clinics from 3-4% before the crisis started to about 30% now.

That their health situation has worsened as a result of the crisis is demonstrated by the number of Greeks who consider that their health is “bad” or “very bad”, which has increased by 14% from 2007 to 2009. To make matters worse, a third of the country’s outreach programs have been eliminated as a result of budget cuts in 2009 and 2010.

By many accounts, Greece’s public health care system is riddled with corruption and inefficiency. Oftentimes, patients offer doctors informal payments to receive treatment, particularly when they are not covered by their social insurance fund. In addition, hospitals frequently face shortages of materials and equipment.

The situation in Greece may be a harbinger of what may happen –or is happening- in countries with similar social and health care systems and which may go through similarly difficult economic situations. And it is up to the governments in those countries to rationalize resources, increase efficiency and protect their most valuable asset: the health of its citizens.

Dr. Cesar Chelala, an international public health consultant, is the foreign correspondent for The Middle East Times International (Australia).