PRESIDENT MUBARAK IS VERY WORRIED

New York             Dr. Cesar Chelala

It is fair to assume that Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak is very worried. And if he is not he might well be, since recent events in Tunisia don’t augur well for his regime. The Tunisian events may find echo not only in Egypt, but in other Arab countries under repressive governments.

Outwardly, Mubarak’s regime is behaving with confidence. Internally, though, there are probably many scenarios being played about possible repetition of the Tunisian popular revolt. And it is conceivable that Mubarak may be unable to stand the pressure of long-contained popular demands.

One of the most contentious issues is the Emergency Law which last May was extended for two more years after being in effect since president Anwar el-Sadat was assassinated in 1981. The government has broken promises to revoke this law several times. The Emergency Law allows the government to arrest people without charge, detain prisoners indefinitely, limit freedom of expression and assemble, and maintain a special security court.

The Emergency Law enables the Egyptian authorities to refer civilians to emergency and military courts, which don’t meet basic standards of fairness. Although the government has never confirmed the number of those detained under the law, human rights organizations in the country estimate that between 5,000 and 10,000 people are still detained without charge. “The regime only respects human rights when they do not threaten the stability of the existing system,” stated Bahey el-din Hassan, director of the Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies.

Egypt’s entrenched dictatorship has been confidently trying to discredit the idea of domino-effect democratization. In an unambiguous show of political force, extra battalions of riot police have been stationed next to the Tunisian Embassy in Cairo, where some protests against the regime took place. Protesters, however, were outnumbered 5-to1 by riot police.

Egypt’s liberal activists are waiting for the right moment to conduct demonstrations against the government. Several liberal factions are planning to stage a major protest on January 25th, to coincide with the national holiday honoring the country’s police force.

Frequently, both police and security forces engage in torture and brutality of those detained in police stations and detention centers.

In the meantime, despite an estimated growth rate of near six percent, many Egyptians state that economic growth hasn’t benefited ordinary citizens. The number of Egyptians living below the poverty line in 2008 and 2009 amounted to 16.3 million. Like the other countries in the region, Egypt is a “bipolar society” where most of the economic resources are own by the few. Basic needs and wishes of most of the population continue to be unfulfilled.

To add to a situation of unrest, Egyptian stocks and the Egyptian pound have fallen, as investors fear that the situation in Tunisia could also affect Egypt. That possibility has been strongly denied by high government officials. “The talk about the spread of what happened in Tunisia to other countries is nonsense. Each society has its own circumstances…if the Tunisian people decide to take that approach that is their

business,” Egypt’s Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit told reporters in Sharm El-Sheikh during the second Arab Economic Summit.

Government officials’ belief that Egypt won’t replicate the Tunisian situation is not shared by critics of the government. “A regime change in Egypt is ‘inevitable’ following the popular uprising in Tunisia,” Mohamed ElBaradei declared recently in Austria. ElBaradei also stated that he was pinning his hopes in the 60 percent of Egyptians that are younger than 30, whom he believes have no hopes for a better future but also no ulterior motives for their actions.

It is impossible to predict the outcome of the present situation. However, unless people’s demands are better addressed in Egypt, many Egyptians, like the Tunisians, will be also singing the words of the Tunisian poet Abu Al-Qassem Al-Shabi, “When people decide to live, destiny shall obey.”

Dr. Cesar Chelala is a co-winner of an Overseas Press Club of America award for an article on human rights.