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The deal and negotiations with Hamas are likely to reach a dead end

Two critical weeks... the collapse of negotiations and war is inevitable!
Hilda Al-Madarani
July 10, 2024
(See translation in Arabic section)
Sydney - Middle East Times Int’l: A state of anticipation prevails on the Lebanese front, which is tinged with extreme caution about the expansion of the fires of battle and the exchange of strikes on both sides of the Lebanese-Israeli border, which up until now maintains its balance according to the rules of engagement, and the response to the response is “measured” and measured, even if Israel goes beyond it by carrying out assassinations that penetrate the Lebanese depths, all the way to the outskirts of Baalbek. Hermel.
Between Israel's threat to resolve the battle on its northern front before late August to ensure the return of settlers at the beginning of the school year, and the deal expected to be achieved with Hamas under international and regional auspices within two weeks at the latest, there are no signs of any positive progress, and the leaked data indicate that it may reach a dead end in the end. In light of threatening messages arriving in Beirut warning Hezbollah of the consequences of continuing in the labor war and returning to the understanding in place before October 8 and the outbreak of the Al-Aqsa Flood.
The point being raised currently in light of the attempts to conclude a deal between Hamas and Israel is summed up by the emergence of a dark picture of the entire regional scene in the event of the failure of this deal, as this would increase the possibilities of the outbreak of a devastating war on Lebanon, the fragments of which would affect the entire region. Informed circles, via “Lebanon Files,” believe that bridging the gap between Hamas and Netanyahu’s conditions requires more concessions, which Netanyahu, who continues to practice the art of evasion, is unlikely to adhere to, especially since he has no interest in making concessions at this critical moment and after he has tightened his grip on Gaza with absolute American support. As for the southern Lebanese front, limiting the solution - the truce to conditions that seem far-fetched for Hezbollah, which stipulates emptying the south of Hezbollah’s military presence represented by the presence of its members, missiles, and the Radwan Force, and the latter’s clinging to the equation of connecting the arenas and not stopping hostilities except with the cessation of the war in Gaza. Which in reality means the naivety of expecting to reach an agreement that will end the war within weeks. However, what can be expected is that Israel will delay its war on Hezbollah until it rearranges its army’s preparations and devotes itself to the northern front, which in reality means that things will remain as they are for months. The difficulty and difficulty of Lebanon's transition to complete stability and the restoration of its calm in the foreseeable future.


Copyright 2007