Using the Iran Nuclear Accord to Advance Regional Security

Christian Koch

Gulf Research Center Foundation

[email protected]

July 26, 2015

With the issue of an Iran nuclear deal now off the table for the first time in 12 years, it is time to turn attention to the numerous other challenges troubling the Gulf region in particular and the Middle East in general. 

For one, it is absolutely essential not to lose the diplomatic momentum following the conclusion of the agreement reached after hard negotiations. Besides, the nuclear accord itself still needs to be approved by institutions like the US Congress and the Iranian Majlis. Though the first step has been taken with the unanimous approval of the UN Security Council, hurdles remain. Second, in the implementation of the deal, there are bound to be disputes that will require diplomatic skill and intervention so that differing interpretations can be resolved before they threaten to undermine the entire accord. Third, the nuclear deal is just one issue between Iran, its regional neighbors, and the international community. There are a host of other issues that remain unresolved which, if left unattended, will also impact the implementation of the agreement. The current turmoil facing the Middle East will need to be tackled sooner rather than later. The diplomatic opening provided by the nuclear agreement must be used to search for solutions in Syria and Yemen, to cite just two examples, so that the unacceptable human suffering can be urgently alleviated.

While the Arab Gulf States do have legitimate concerns about Iranian policy outside of the nuclear issue, it is important to put the recent accomplishment in perspective. Far from seeing the nuclear deal as something that frees Iran from the restraints of sanctions or as the first step in a renewed US-Iran alliance, the deal should be seen as something that throws the ball back into the Iranian court. With the negotiations now having been completed and its shadow having been lifted from the other important matters to be dealt with, the focus in the coming months will be on how the Iranian leadership begins to deal with the realities of this accord. Iran's behavior not just with regard to the agreement but on the regional issues mentioned will be in the spotlight. 

The Arab Gulf states have often voiced their concern that the lifting of sanctions as part of any deal will allow Iran to further pursue its regional hegemonic ambitions and open the floodgates for increased Iranian support for Shia militias such as Hizbollah in Lebanon/Syria or the Houthis in Yemen. However, with the nuclear deal having been completed and removed, at least temporarily, from the daily agenda, attention will now be fully focused on Iranian actions in the Gulf and the wider region. If Iranian interventionist policies are the core concern of the Arab Gulf States, the nuclear accord should be seen as a welcome development since it will shift the focus exactly to those policies as far as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the rest of the GCC states are concerned. 

The GCC states have no interest in seeing the regional climate worsen, although as their recent action in Yemen has demonstrated, they are also determined to protect what they perceive to be their core national interests. As such, any Iranian attempt to continue to deliberately weaken the central governments in Bahrain or Yemen are bound to be resolutely resisted. No GCC state wants to see on their borders weak or even failed states in which non-state actors controlled from the outside play key roles. The same can be said for Iraq where the GCC wants to see a strong central government instead of dozens of Shia militias holding sway over most of the country.

With the nuclear deal completed, issues such as Syria, Yemen, and Iraq will move to the top of the regional as well as international agenda. This is a positive outcome given that these issues demand more attention and would benefit from a concerted attempt to put forward potential political solutions. The art of diplomacy succeeded in the case of Iran in Vienna. Let it be the stepping stone toward further diplomatic breakthroughs. Neither the P5+1 and Iran nor the Arab Gulf states should waste the current momentum.  

Christian Koch is Director of the Gulf Research Center Foundation in Geneva, Switzerland.