Daily Market Update 18 February 2014 - US, markets in general, on holiday
The ASX 200 looks set to start today’s session where it ended off yesterday with SPI futures pointing to a rise of 28pts on the open. While further gains in base and precious metals should help underpin the market, particularly the materials and gold sectors, with the index now up 6.55% since Feb 5 and with a raft of major earnings announcements on the way today, it’s clear that the bar for further gains is rising without a clear catalyst behind it. Keeping this in mind, should any earnings reports meet-or-miss forecasts from here, with so much good news already built in to prices, it’s likely that profit-taking will ensue should we even get a skerrick of disappointment.
A lacklustre session for the AUDUSD overnight, at least compared to recent sessions, with the pair easing lower despite a raft of reasons to push higher in light, holiday-impacted trade. While that was overnight, the data and events calendar picks up steam today with the minutes of the RBA’s February monetary policy meeting, along with the BoJ’s policy decision later in the session, set to determine the pair’s direction in the interim. While it is likely that the Aussie will be bid up into the release of the RBA minutes, with much of the information looking somewhat-dated, we could see a ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact’ outcome should the minutes not divulge any additional information that markets are not already aware of. Support starts between .9025-15, .9000 and at .8985 with resistance kicking in above .9036, .9069 and again at .9086.
The domestic earnings season continues to rumble on today with BHP Billiton, Seven West Media, Amcor, Asciano, Coca-Cola Amatil and Arrium just some of the better known names that are scheduled to report.
The RBA will release the minutes of their February monetary policy meeting this morning at 11.30am. While there’ll be plenty of interest in this release given that the RBA adopted a clear neutral bias at this meeting, given we’ve already seen the quarterly statement on monetary policy and January unemployment figures in between the decision and this release, it has to be said that the contents are likely to look a little dated once they hit later in the morning.
Regional data releases today include Japanese machine tool orders and South Korean producer price inflation. On the monetary policy front, the Bank of Japan will announce their February monetary policy decision although no change in strategy is expected.
Data releases this evening include the Empire State manufacturing index and NAHB home builder survey in the States, German ZEW index, Eurozone current account, Italian trade along with CPI, PPI and ONS house price index from the UK. In what will garner plenty of attention, particularly following their shock rate move late last month, the Turkish Central Bank, the TCMB, will also announce their February monetary policy decision.