Daily Market Update 29 November 2013 - Nothing doing, nothing moving
German unemployment rose unexpectedly in November with an increase of 10k reported. The reading was above estimates for nil change during the month and came on the back of an upwardly-revised 3k increase in October. Despite the rise, the unemployment rate held steady at 6.9% for a second-consecutive month.
German CPI ticked higher in November with an increase of 0.2% reported. The figure was higher than both the -0.3% contraction of October and expectations for a decline of -0.1% and left the year-on-year rate 0.4% higher at +1.6%.
German import prices slipped in October with a decline of 0.7% reported. The figure was well below the 0.3% decline expected by the markets and left the annualised drop at a 2-month low of 3.0%.
Eurozone consumer confidence fell in November with the final reading of the European Commission index coming in at -15.4. The figure was in line with the preliminary estimate released earlier in the month but below the -14.5 reading previously seen in October.
Spanish GDP was confirmed at +0.1% in Q3 with the annualised contraction revised up to -1.1% from -1.2%.
Spanish house prices continued to contract in Q3 with a decline of 0.4% reported. While another decrease, the figure was an improvement on the 2.4% contraction of Q2 and left the year-on-year decline at -4.5%, up from -7.6% previously.
Spanish consumer prices rose more-than-expected in November with an increase of 0.3% reported. The figure was higher than the flat reading of October and expectations for an increase of 0.1% and left the year-on-year increase in positive territory at +0.2%.
Italian business confidence rose modestly in November with ISTAT reporting an increase to 98.1. The reading was above both the upwardly-revised 97.4 figure of October and expectations for a rise to 97.5 and was the highest level seen since August 2011.
The Day Ahead (All times AEDT)
SPI futures point to a gain of 2 pts on the open. Given it’s quiet and month-end, literally anything could happen today.
The AUDUSD has opened the Asian session fetching .91XX. Given it has been one of the worst performers over the month, we expect it’ll remain under pressure throughout the course of today’s session. Support is found at .9098 and again at .9065 with resistance kicking in above .9135, .9151 and again at .9204.
Australian private sector credit data for October will be released this morning at 11.30am. Economists are expecting an increase of 0.4% after rising 0.3% in September. As always, keep an eye out for the housing credit figure, often it’s more influential than the headline number itself.
Abenomics will be in focus today with the release of manufacturing PMI, unemployment, industrial production, CPI, housing starts and construction orders from Japan. Elsewhere we’ll also receive M3 growth and building permits from New Zealand.
Economic releases this evening include GDP figures from India and Canada, retail sales from Germany and Greece, unemployment figures from the Eurozone and Italy, PPI from France and Italy, Eurozone CPI, French consumer spending along with the Nationwide house price index and Bank of England credit figures from the UK.