Daily Market Update 9 May 2013 - Jobs ‘lottery’ to set today’s tone

Daily Market Update 9 May 2013 - Jobs ‘lottery’ to set today’s tone

Making it two-from-two in terms of economic data, German industrial output soared in March with a rise of 1.2% reported. The result was well ahead of the 0.1% decline forecast by economists and the upwardly-revised 0.6% increase of February and was the largest monthly percentage gain since March 2012. As was the case with the data released on Tuesday, the internals of the report were also impressive with increases in manufacturing (+1.4%) and energy (+4.0%) output able to offset a 3.2% decline in construction.


Canadian housing starts fell fractionally in April with an annualised increase of 174.9k recorded. The figure was down on the 181.1k pace seen in March although in line with economic forecasts for a decline to 175k.


Swiss consumer prices held steady in April, confounding expectations for an increase of 0.1%. Despite the monthly data missing to the downside, upward revisions to prior data saw the year-on-year deflation rate hold steady at 0.6%.


UK house prices rose strongly in April with the Halifax Building Society reporting<http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media1/press_releases/2013_press_releases/halifax/080513_HPI.asp> an increase of 1.1%. The result was well above the 0.1% rise that had been expected by the markets and left the three-month average some 2.0% higher than a year earlier.

For the football fans out there, in the wake of Sir Alex Ferguson’s retirement, shares in the Manchester United Football Club fell -1.76% to $18.44 in New York overnight.


The Day Ahead (All times AEST)


The ASX 200 looks set to hit fresh five-year highs again this morning with SPI futures pointing to a rise of 14pts on the open. Given large increases across the commodities complex overnight, it’s safe to assume most of the heavy lifting will be done by the materials and energy sectors with investors continuing to bet on the ‘global recovery story’. While gains there seem almost a given, whether we have a good or great day will be determined by two events, NAB’s H1 profit announcement and the domestic unemployment figures at 11.30am, with outperformance’s from both likely to spark another round of broad-based buying.


Despite gains in commodity and equity markets, the Australian Dollar remained under pressure overnight with a failure at the 1.02 level prompting another wave of selling pressure. Given it is trading so poorly at present, the labour force statistics will be highly influential today with a weak reading likely set the currency on course for a test of parity in the days ahead. Support is found at 1.0155 and 1.0113 with resistance kicking in at 1.02 and again at 1.0250.


Australian labour force data for April will be released at 11.30am. Economists expect the economy to have generated 12,000 jobs over the month with unemployment and participation remaining steady at 5.6% and 65.1% respectively. As you are no doubt aware, expect the unexpected with the seasonally-adjusted figures!

On what is an irregular occurrence, New Zealand also release their Q1 unemployment data this morning with employment expected to increase 0.8% after falling 1.0% in Q4 with the unemployment rate falling 0.1% to 6.8%. For those with an interest, the data hits the screens at 8.45am. Elsewhere we’ll get China CPI and PPI for April, numbers that will garner plenty of attention given their implications for monetary policy, while the Japanese leading index for March will also be released. On the policy front, the Bank of Korea hold their monthly monetary policy meeting.


Data releases this evening include jobless claims and wholesale trade from the States, UK industrial production, Spanish industrial output, Portuguese unemployment along with Canadian new housing prices. In what is likely to be a non-event, the Bank of England hold their monthly MPC meeting with policy likely to be held steady at 0.5% and £375b respectively.



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